Modi Tsunami annihilates the Bhaiyas, Behenjis, Didis and Dadas
It took time but finally it has dawned on the UP ke ladke, baba log and behenji — Akhilesh Yadav, a 43 years young old, who in his childish tantrum snatched the party from his father who founded it, and Rahul Gandhi, only 46 years old and waiting to be mature and Behenji Mayawati mad at the lootera who banned Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes, that it is not only difficult but impossible to vanquish their most ‘abominable’ opponent Narendra Damodardas Modi and jump on the seat from which he would be dragged by them.
The basic mistake of the Opposition leaders was that in their hurry to wrest power from Modi, they did not even do cursory home-work to understand him. They failed to realise he was one-man army, who did a clinical demolition job on political rivals. His record in Gujarat of wining successive polls and demolishing opponents both inside and outside his party bespeaks of his prowess.
But none of the Opposition leaders had the patience to find out the game plan of Modi-Shah combine for Uttar Pradesh, the outcome of which was most crucial for all the parties. The Opposition leaders campaigned with the presumption that because of the notebandi, the electorate will reject Modi. They were in for a shock.
The resounding win in Uttar Pradesh, 325 out of 403 seats, marked not only the return of the BJP in the state after 14 years but also it broke 37 year old record of a single party scooping 300 seats. Modi’s juggernaut rolled on to crush all hurdles and attempts to ruin his credibility by Rahul, Mayawati ably assisted by Mamata didi and Lalu Yadav. They failed, because Modi bases his politics on truth, as he himself claims. Whatever he claimed to have been done, he provided visual proof for it.
He knows from experience that speeches announcing welfare schemes and spewing hatred of opposition cannot win elections. Claims have to be substantiated by actual work done, which is discernible to people. And this is what he did to convince the voter that changes he was initiating were not cosmetic but were real and were being effective.
Whatever schemes he said were being implemented, were apparent to the voter, like electricity to villages, toilets specially for women, houses for all, crop insurance for farmers, to name a few schemes.
His opponents are stunned and shocked that the powerful combine of two dynastic princes and behenji, supremo of the majority of dalits, aided and abetted by the media has been crushed by a man who has no political pedigree and according to blue-blooded prince is a suit-boot wala with no contact with the poor.
The defeat is more painful because when elections were announced the Akhileshs and Mayawatis were in high spirits in the belief that Modi had lost millions of supporters who had suffered miserably due to notebandi and the people will punish him like they did to Indira Gandhi because of nasbandi.
This is why the opposition made demonetisation one of the prime electoral issue and was sure that Modi would fare badly. The opposition, helped by the media also convinced the people that the assembly elections were a semi-final of the General Election in 2019. They were sure that people, livid at Modi because of the trouble and travail demonetisation caused, would reject him.
AAP was celebrating victories in Punjab and Goa even before the elections were held. The Congress was smug about Manipur, where its chief minister had been ruling for 15 years. And in UP, Mayawati was sure of a sweep, because she believed that Muslims, 20 per cent, would vote for BSP, as she had given party tickets to nearly 100 Muslims, including one contesting from Ayodhaya, and Dalits, 24 per cent, were her bonded supporters. The arithmetic was right but her presumptions were wrong.
The outcome of the assembly election in UP, the political cauldron of India, has however been the real decider of the political future of all the parties, but more so for Modi. More the number of seats he could win, he would have more say in the election for the President and better balance in the Rajya Sabha. Presently the NDA being in minority, the opposition has been stalling reforms, which it knows will make him more popular.
The SP after alliance with the Congress too was sure of victory. Akhilesh had declared that the combine will win 300 seats, sadly SP won 48 and the Congress 7. How come they all got it so horribly wrong.
The BJP owes a lot to the ‘enticing oratory’ and the strong link all faiths, castes and beliefs, Amit Shah ensured that his party’s potential voters did cast their votes.
It is said that Shah had brought one Sunil Bansal from Rajasthan, a former ABVP functionary and MBA from some foreign University in 2015 to UP. He was asked to prepare constituency-wise, break-up of the faith, caste, age, education and sex of the people in each constituency, After that he was to get as much information as possible about people assigned a polling booth. The distribution of tickets, assigning activists and arrangement of vehicles and observers were done by Shah according to the information provided by Bansal. So, it was the Modi euphoria and Shah’s groundwork and organisation that brought record number of seats to BJP in UP.
There are various reasons behind BJP’s resounding victory. The party has been given a taxing mandate to govern. To all extents and purposes, this victory is likely to be just about as all-conquering as its extraordinary sweep of India’s largest state in 2014.
The Bahujan Samajwadi party and Mayawati have been practically wiped out. More importantly, for the first time, Modi has come up against a powerful and popular state leader — and won. The Samajwadi Party banked on Akhilesh Yadav’s personal popularity. And it appeared his popularity remains robust — it’s just not as strong as the Modi mystique.
Modi will be happy that his objective of Congress-mukt Bharat inched forward, with the Congress failing to plant its flag in four out of five state where assembly polls were held. The credit for winning in Punjab is being given to Amarinder Singh and not to Rahul.
The humiliation of the Congress—down from 28 to 7-despite solid support of Akhilesh, claimed a BJP functionary, was one of the major plan of Amit Shah – it delegitimises the idea of the Congress as a coalition partner for any strong state leader. Uttarakhand is a bonus. Modi will be celebrating the deflation of the bloated ego of Kejriwal. He would prefer ineffective Rahul as an opponent than Arvind Kejriwal, a tricky dictator. Coming back to UP, the massive BJP win has some important take-aways.
One, demonetisation has been approved by the general public. Two, the BJP is set to retain power in 2019, with no challenger likely to emerge in the near future. Third, Rahul’s “suit-boot” barb has become ineffectual, which means the prince has not many weapons left in his armoury to hurt Modi.
Fourth, the all-pervasive Modi wave of 2014, is still intact, the BJP victory in crucial states, mainly Uttar Pradesh, will now silence the doomsters and doubters who had been claiming that Modi has lost his charisma. Fifth, Mayawati has been parroting about tampered EVMs, which she does not say so in actual words, but means that she lost because of the machinations of the BJP. All others who have lost out have picked of the behenji’s refrain — Akhilesh, Kejriwal being the principal cry-babies.
Victory makes Prez poll easy for BJP
The most significant outcome for the BJP from the massive wins in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand is that it needs votes of just one party, AIADMK or BJD, or TRS plus YSRCP, to get its choice elected as the new President. That will stamp BJP’s hold on the Indian polity. This will also affirm that the Modi Magic is at its peak.
Pranab Mukherjee completes his term in July. The new President will be chosen by the elected members of both Houses of Parliament and assemblies of the states and Union territories. Their votes are weighted: each MP contributes 708 votes while the value of an MLA’s vote varies in accordance with the 1971 population of the state s/he represents. The total pool is nearly 10.99 lakh votes — half comes from 4,120 MLAs and the other half from 776 MPs.
With the victory in UP and additional seats won in other states, the BJP and its allies, including those in the Northeast and J&K, now hold over 47.5 per cent of the pool. For the remaining 2.5 per cent, the AIADMK (5.4 per cent ) and BJD (3.4 per cent) are capable of covering the deficit individually. Otherwise, the YSR Congress (nearly 2 per cent) and the TRS (1.6 per cent) add up to more than the deficit. All these four parties have a predilection for going with the ruling party at the Centre unless its direct interests are served better by opposing it.
Udhav Thackrey’s unusual and inexplicable opposition to anything and everything BJP does or proposes could be a hurdle The Sena, holds nearly 2.4 per cent of the current pool, has a history of ditching the BJP in presidential elections; it had backed Congress nominees Pratibha Patil (2007) and Mukherjee (2012). The Sena remains in touch with the regional parties opposed to the BJP — it participated in the Trinamool Congress march to Rashtrapati Bhavan against demonetisation — and can possibly join hands with them to spite the dominant coalition partner. The BJP has reduced the tension by backing the Sena’s nominee in the Mumbai mayoral elections.
But now the BJP is in dominant position largely due to Uttar Pradesh, whose assembly contributes 7.6 per cent to the presidential pool. The BJP and its allies have won over 80 per cent of the assembly, or six per cent of the presidential pool, while their new MLAs in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur together bring in a little over half a per cent.
In 2012, the Congress, leading the UPA, was able to get Mukherjee elected with ease. Mukherjee secured 7.13 lakh votes, or 69.3 per cent of the votes polled, to defeat BJP-backed Purno A Sangma who polled 30.69 per cent. Though the ruling coalition controlled only 33.2 per cent of the electoral college, it managed to mobilise the support of the Sena as well as the JD(U), then a BJP ally, besides the SP, CPM, the Trinamool Congress and the BSP.
In 2017 the roles are reversed. The BJP has won power at the Centre and seized states such as Maharashtra, Assam, Jharkhand, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, and now Uttar Pradesh, while the Congress has also lost Andhra Pradesh to TDP, a friend of the BJP.
Modi can reasonably be confident of his nominee getting the tenancy of Rashtrapati Bhavan in coming July.
The behenji must be asked who told her that EVMs can be fed with some disc which makes the machine record only when the button for BJP is pressed. Why she is not getting an EVM of the kind she has been alleging gave the BJP the massive win. She has very little time left. She will retire from the Rajya Sabha early next year. And as things stand after the assembly elections she cannot get herself re-elected. It could be a sad end of political career of a colourful politician.Sixth, the Jan Dhan yojana, Mundra Bank scheme, free and cheap insurances, insurance against crop losses and other welfare schemes including gas connections to rural India — have created an amazing goodwill for Modi. He has become an icon. Seventh, he has erased the belief that the BJP is a Brahmin-Bania party. The saffron has spread across caste, class and even faith barriers.
The old issues and ideologies that determined outcomes of elections have been replaced by the development, change and promise of greater globalisation.
After March 11 results Modi has become the tallest leader in the country, his is the most recognisable face in the country, but so far he has kept his feet firmly on the ground. His address to party workers at the BJP headquarters a day after the results gave a glimpse of his vision for India.
He said that “a “new India” is emerging and it stands for development…Government is for everyone and we will make new India together. I would like to thank the voters of the five states, want to assure them that we will leave no stone unturned for the betterment. Earlier I had said that we are new, have less experience and can make mistakes, but won’t do anything with wrong intention: I am the only prime minister who has been asked why he works so much. This golden moment was not achieved easily, but with hard work and perseverance.”
Prime Minister further added that “when India turns 75 in 2022, BJP will bring in a new India … With these wins we have the responsibility of being humble. Power is not about posts, it is an opportunity to serve. These elections are an emotional issue for us. They come when we mark the centenary celebrations of Pandit Deen Dayalji. If poor are educated and looked after, they will serve the society in a better way. I recognise the power of poor in the country. There are many reasons for a win but such an empathetic win after such a record turnout is special and makes everyone think.”
Taking a dig at the pollsters, astrologers he said “Massive victory has forced political pundits to retrospect.”
Iterating one stresses again that the massive win he carved entitles him to the tag of ‘Superman’, a new conscious leader of a new knowledgeable voter in a new evolving India. One is not going overboard because of his amazing victory, it is a statement about a man who from the peak of success, speaks from the bottom of the pyramid as the Economic Times put it: Remember it is the meek who inherit the earth.
By Vijay Dutt